War games 戰爭遊戲

原文連結：http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21569725-another-battle-achieve-currency-depreciation-war-games

Buttonwood (財經專欄)
War games 戰爭遊戲
Another battle to achieve currency depreciation 貨幣貶值戰再起
Jan 19th 2013 |From the print edition

MANY British football grounds have a viewing problem. Although stadiums are all-seaters these days for health-and-safety reasons, some fans refuse to sit down. They stand during the game, forcing those behind them to follow suit. Eventually everyone in that part of the ground ends up on their feet. No one’s view has improved but everyone is a lot less comfortable.
許多球迷到英國橄欖球場都會發現視野上的問題。即使近年來因觀眾的健康及安全考量，運動場的設計上讓人人都有座位，但就是有些球迷不願坐下，而是站著觀賽，逼著後排觀眾也得站起來，搞到最後，那一區的所有球迷都站著看球。大家不但沒看得比較清楚，反而被弄得更不舒適。

Foreign-exchange markets face a similar issue at the moment. Just about every country would like to see its currency weaken, so that their exporters have a price advantage and can gain market share. But when one currency falls, others must rise. Those countries react by trying to force their currencies back down and the world ends up back where it started.
外匯市場現在也碰到了類似的問題。幾乎每個國家都希望本國貨幣貶值，因為出口商能藉此占價格優勢，搶攻市佔率。但一國貨幣貶值，也就意味著其他國家貨幣升值，這些國家便會試圖迫使本國貨幣貶值，最後各國之間的匯率又會變回最原始的狀態。

Guido Mantega, the Brazilian finance minister, described the process as “currency wars” back in September 2010, and this week Alexei Ulyukayev, the first deputy chairman of the Russian central bank, resurrected the phrase to warn of another round of competitive devaluations. Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the Eurogroup of finance ministers, this week called the single currency’s exchange rate “dangerously high”. The Norwegian central bank hinted that the krone’s strength would cause it to be cautious in pushing up interest rates, even though the country is in the middle of a housing boom.
在二○一○年九月，巴西財政部長吉多‧曼特加曾稱這種過程為「貨幣戰爭」；而本週，俄羅斯央行第一副主席阿列克謝‧烏盧卡耶夫再度引用這個詞彙來預告新一波競爭性貶值的來臨；歐元集團主席尚克勞德‧容克也在本週以「要命的高」來形容歐元的匯率。儘管挪威正值房地產業繁榮，但該國央行暗示，考量到挪威克朗的幣值，所以在提高利率時格外謹慎。

The starting-point for this particular skirmish was the election of Shinzo Abe as prime minister of Japan in December, and his promise to reorient economic policy. In particular Mr Abe wants the Bank of Japan to double its inflation target to 2% and to buy government bonds until that target is achieved. If his goal is realised, Japanese interest rates would finally become negative in real (ie, after inflation) terms. Because of deflation, real rates have been positive for much of the past decade, even though the economy has been sluggish. That has kept the yen strong, making life more difficult for exporters.
追根究柢，這波貨幣戰爭乃源自去年十二月當選日本首相的安倍晉三，還有他的重整經濟方針政見。尤其是安倍還希望央行將通膨目標提高至 2%，並要央行持續購買本國國債，直到達成通膨目標才能收手。安倍的目標一旦實現，日本的實質利率（即將通膨率計入後所得的利率）終將成負值。雖然日本經濟不景氣，但因通貨緊縮，過去十年來的實質利率幾乎皆為正值，這使日圓一直以來都十分強勢，對出口商不利。

Mr Abe’s rhetoric has had a big impact on the currency markets, pushing the yen down from 78 per dollar in October to 89. According to Alan Ruskin of Deutsche Bank, this was the fifth-fastest decline in the yen since the collapse of the Bretton Woods exchange-rate system in 1971.
安倍的言論對貨幣市場衝擊頗大，日圓對美元的匯率去年十月還是 78，現在則跌到了 89。德意志銀行的艾倫‧拉斯金表示，布列敦森林匯率體系 1971 年瓦解至今，這次日圓貶值的速度之快，可名列第五。

Even the Japanese seem to have been slightly taken aback by the yen’s fall. Japan is heavily dependent on foreign energy supplies, and on January 15th Akari Amari, the economy minister, warned that excessive yen depreciation would force up import prices. Perhaps it has only just dawned on Mr Amari that, if Japan wants higher inflation, some prices have to go up.
這次日圓的貶值，似乎就連日方也有點措手不及。日本高度仰賴國外能源供應，本月十五日，日本經濟部長甘利明提出警告，日圓過度貶值會連帶迫使進口價格上升。或許甘利這才明白，若日本想提高通膨率，還是得付出一些代價的。

The yen’s weakness has added to the pressures on other economies. One of the strongest currencies so far in 2013 has been the euro, which has been buoyed by a feeling that a break-up of the single currency has become less likely. Some side effects of this change in sentiment are helpful—the falls in Spanish and Italian government-bond yields, for example. By making life more difficult for the continent’s manufacturers, the rise in the currency is not one of them.
日圓走弱使他國也備感壓力。因為各界認為歐元瓦解的可能性已經降低，間接提振歐元，使其成為今年目前最強勢的貨幣之一。各界對歐元的態度轉變意外帶來一些益處，像是西班牙及義大利的國債利息因此下降；但相對地，歐元升值也對歐陸製造商不利，這可就不是什麼好事了。

The euro has even risen against the Swiss franc, a currency that was so strong in 2011 and 2012 that the Swiss accumulated more foreign-exchange reserves than any other country in the world. The Swiss National Bank acquired those reserves as part of its pledge to prevent the franc from rising above 1.20 to the euro by creating unlimited amounts of francs and buying foreign currencies with the proceeds.
在 2011 及 2012 年間，瑞士法郎十分強勢，瑞士的外匯存底甚至躍居全球之冠，當時的瑞士央行毫無限制地印製法郎、購買外幣，獲取外匯存底後，將之視為部分抵押品，預防法郎對歐元的匯率飆過 1.2。但現在，歐元對瑞士法郎也升值了。

The success of the tactic illustrated the different issues that face central banks that want to drive their currencies down, as opposed to those that want to prop them up. Central banks that support their currency rely on finite foreign-exchange reserves and a willingness to push up interest rates, a measure that causes huge damage to the domestic economy. In contrast, a determined central bank can always drive its currency lower provided it is willing to create enough currency and it is not worried about inflation.
這番策略成功的同時，說明了想貶值貨幣的國家所面臨的各種問題，但總有其他國家會希望前者升值。因此央行若想維持幣值，除了依賴有限的外匯存底之外，還得願意冒著重挫國家經濟的風險而提升利率；相反的，如果央行願意創造足夠的貨幣而拋開通膨的疑慮，那麼貨幣貶值也不是什麼難事。

What is so unusual about the current situation is that quantitative easing (QE) has been so widespread in rich countries. QE may not have been specifically designed to drive currencies down, but exchange-rate weakness has been seen by policymakers as a useful side effect.
目前全球局勢中不尋常的是，量化寬鬆竟已在富國間如此普遍。量化寬鬆的立意或許不在帶動貨幣貶值，但決策者都將匯率走貶視為附加效益。

Countries in the developing world, like Russia, may be cynical about the whole process. But economic experience suggests that as such countries catch up with developed ones, emerging-market currencies should rise and those of richer places fall. The emerging world has resisted this natural development, so it is having to happen in unnatural ways.
俄國等開發中國家可能會對這整起事件懷疑猜忌，但過去經驗顯示，正當開發中國家的經濟表現逐漸趕上已開發國家時，新興經濟體的貨幣就會升值，而富國的貨幣就會貶值。既然新興經濟體一直想阻止這種正常發展，那麼整體局勢就必將反常了。

Taiwan’s elections 台灣大選

It’s all right, Ma 馬先生，我們都支持你!

Taiwanese democracy catches on—in mainland China

台式民主於中國大陸掀起風潮

Jan 21st 2012 | TAIPEI | from the print edition 印刷版 | 台北 | 二○一二年，一月二十一日

(文章來源): http://www.economist.com/node/21543197 (經濟學人)

THE presidential and parliamentary elections that Taiwan held on January 14th were unusual. No party was engulfed in scandal, as was the ruling party at the time in 2008. No candidate was shot at, as the incumbent was four years before that. China issued no dire warnings, as it did in 2000. Nor did it reinforce such warnings by lobbing missiles into the seas around Taiwan, as it did in 1996. Indeed, perhaps most striking this time round was the reaction the polls aroused in China. There, some saw President Ma Ying-jeou’s re-election in a peacefully contested race as evidence that democracy might one day have a chance in China too.

一月十四號在台灣舉行的總統及立院選舉，可說相當異於往常，沒有任何黨派像二○○八年的執政黨一樣，捲入弊案的愁雲慘霧中，候選人馬英九也沒有像二○○四年陳前總統一樣遭到槍擊，中國方面也沒有像二○○○年一樣對台灣出言恫嚇，也沒有像一九九六年台海危機時，於台灣海峽附近試射飛彈。不過，這次大選最令人驚訝之處，應該就屬中國國內民調所引發的反應。部份中國人認為，馬英九此次經由和平競選連任成功，可作為有朝一日民主制度也能在中國萌芽的證據。

Taiwan’s elections might have created a new source of instability in Asia that neither America nor China was keen to face. America is in a presidential election year and China, too, will soon undergo a sweeping change of its leaders. Officials from both countries had hinted strongly at the outcome in Taiwan that they preferred: another four years of Mr Ma. He can be relied upon not to goad an untested new leadership in Beijing into an alarming display of military posturing of the kind it put on the mid-1990s, on the occasion of the island’s first democratic election for the presidency. In the event, Mr Ma won with nearly 52% of the vote, and his Kuomintang (KMT) held the legislature.

以往台灣只要舉行總統大選，都可能造成亞洲地區的不穩定，這也是中國與美國所不樂見的。美國今年亦正值總統大選年，中國很快也將歷經領導階層的重新洗牌，兩國官員都強烈暗示，他們希望台灣此次大選，馬英九能再度連任，這乃是因為他們認為馬英九值得信賴，認為他不致刺激北京新一代領導者，造成中國像一九九○年代中期一樣，對台進行武力威嚇，當時正好是台灣首次民選總統。今年大選，馬英九以將近百分之五十二得票率勝出，他所領導的國民黨也在立法院占有過半席次。

It was a relief to both China and America. At the same time the composure of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was also reassuring. Its candidate, Tsai Ing-wen, came a solid second, with nearly 46% of the vote. The DPP accepted defeat gracefully, unlike the KMT in 2004, when it took to the streets and courts to contest victory by the DPP incumbent, Chen Shui-bian. Ms Tsai, a bureaucrat turned politician, had hoped to become the island’s first woman president. She resigned the chairmanship of the DPP after her defeat. Yet she deserves credit for turning round the fortunes of a party that was thrown into disarray by Mr Ma’s victory in 2008, and by the shock of Mr Chen’s later conviction and prison sentence for gross corruption.

馬英九這次連任成功也讓中國及美國鬆了一口氣，而民進黨敗選後的沉著冷靜，也同時讓兩國感到安心。民進黨候選人蔡英文以百分之四十六的得票率穩居第二，並坦然面對敗選的事實，不像二○○四年陳水扁當選後，國民黨走向街頭、前進發願，抗議選舉不公。蔡英文從政府官員轉戰政治人物，原本希望能成為台灣第一位女總統；敗選後，她便辭去黨主席的職位，但可說雖敗猶榮，她不僅讓二○○八年馬當選後混亂不堪的民進黨重獲新生，也平息了陳水扁因重大貪汙罪入獄服刑對黨內所帶來的衝擊。

Mr Ma’s re-election suggests that many voters shared the fears of Chinese and American officials that Ms Tsai might revive Mr Chen’s provocative approach in dealing with the mainland. This involved vigorously asserting Taiwan’s separateness and resisting any initiatives that remotely smacked of “one China” embracing both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Yet strong support for Ms Tsai (who happens to be far less of a China-provoker than Mr Chen was) also suggested that some Taiwanese are uneasy about the rapid pace of the rapprochement with the mainland under Mr Ma. His share of the vote fell, from 58% four years ago, and his party has a reduced majority in the legislature. It suggests Mr Ma will now have to move more cautiously in his dealings with China, particularly in any area that touches on questions of sovereignty—such as a peace accord, much talked about, in which Taiwan and China would pledge not to resolve their differences by force.

馬英九的連任也顯示出，選民與中、美官員都害怕蔡英文會與陳水扁一樣，在兩岸關係的處理上採取激烈的手段，這包括強烈主張台灣自主性，或否認任何涵蓋台灣為中國一省的「一中」表述。但幸好蔡英文不像陳水扁一樣對中國採強硬手段，這次大選她頗受支持，乃因為部分國人對於馬英九快速拉攏兩岸關係感到不悅，這也讓馬英九得票率比去年低了百分之六，國民黨於立院的席次也因此降低，這也意味著，未來馬英九在處理兩岸關係上必須更加謹慎，特別是涉及主權的問題，最常談到的便是和平協議，也就是台灣與中國雙方皆承諾，不以武力解決雙邊差異。

Gone is the speculation common in the early days of Mr Ma’s presidency that this year might produce a breakthrough in cross-strait relations. After a decade at the helm, China’s president, Hu Jintao, will step down as Communist Party chief later this year (in a process involving not a hint of democracy). Some had hoped he and Mr Ma would wish to leave their mark on history with the first ever cross-strait summit. But Mr Hu, it is now clear, is far more caught up with problems at home, including ensuring economic growth and social stability as leaders jockey for positions in the new line-up. Certainly, Mr Ma lacks domestic support for such a meeting, and he has made it clear that China must address him as president if ever there were to be a summit. As ever, China’s media, in their reports on the elections, found it hard to describe the elections as presidential, except sometimes in quotation marks.

在馬英九剛上任不久，許多人認為他會在兩岸關係上做出突破，但這般揣測似乎已煙消雲散。中國國家主席胡錦濤已掌權十年之久，將在今年下半年辭去共產黨領導者的職務，然而在他退位的過程中，並無一絲民主的跡象。一些人認為，馬、胡應舉辦一場史無前例的台海兩岸高峰會，可能因此留名青史；但目前，胡錦濤顯然仍陷於國內種種的問題中，在後起領導者爭相謀取權位之時，他除了要確保經濟發展，還必須尋求社會穩定。在馬英九方面，無疑他若要舉辦這場高峰會，國人並不支持，他也表明，若真有這麼一場高峰會，會中中國必須稱呼他為總統；然而，就以往經驗看來，中國媒體在報導台灣大選時，發覺很難將這樣的選舉稱為總統大選，最多也只有少數情況下用引號來表示。

Yet if a survey conducted by a mainland internet portal, Sina.com, is any guide, Mr Ma enjoys strong support on the mainland too. Though the Communist Party has an abhorrence of multiparty democracy, mainland websites gave extensive coverage to Taiwan’s elections, even offering live video feeds of the vote-counting. (The tightly controlled print media were more circumspect in their reporting.) Of more than 26,000 responses to a Sina.com poll asking readers who they would prefer to win, nearly 55% chose Mr Ma, whereas more than a quarter supported a China-friendly rival, James Soong (who took less than 3% of the vote in Taiwan). Nearly 20% chose the China-sceptic Ms Tsai. All this in a country which may not even vote in television talent shows.

不過，若中國入口網站新浪網所做的調查能做為指標的話，其實也有許多中國人大力支持馬英九。儘管中國共產黨非常厭惡多黨輪替的民主體制，但網路上仍大篇幅報導台灣選舉的盛況，甚至還提供開票的實況轉播(報章雜誌因受到嚴格管制，報導就顯得較為嚴謹)。新浪網詢問對台灣候選人支持度的調查中，有超過二萬六千人次的回應，其中有將近五十五%支持馬英九；有二十五%支持親中的宋楚瑜(大選得票率不到三)；另外有將近二十%支持對中國採質疑態度的蔡英文。這番在網路上投票表態的景象，竟會發生在一個連選秀節目上都嚴禁有票選行為的國家。

Li Fan of the World and China Institute, a small Beijing organisation, says that these mainland expressions of support for Ms Tsai were a mark of dissatisfaction with the Communist Party and indicated a desire for opposition politics at home. Mr Li led a rare delegation of mainland academics to observe the Taiwan elections. His five companions were all first-time visitors to the island and were amazed by its politics. “They never thought Taiwan was so free and democratic”, Mr Li enthuses. “It had a very powerful effect on them.” He says the polls give the lie to the Communist Party’s notion that democracy begets chaos.

世界與中國研究所(The World and China Institute)為北京一個小型的民間團體，所長李凡表示，許多大陸人於網路上表態支持蔡英文，可見他們相當不滿共產黨的作風，渴望國內能出現反對黨。李凡本次也難得帶領一群學者代表團，來台觀察選舉的盛況，而團內的五個隨從都是第一次來到台灣，對台灣的政治情況嘖嘖稱奇，李凡稱道:「他們從來不知道，台灣是這麼的民主，這麼的自由，大選的盛況讓他們感到相當震撼。」他更表示，新浪網的調查結果，證明了共產黨認為民主會帶來混亂一言並非事實。

What’s wrong with peaceful evolution? 和平革命哪裡出了差錯?

In the minds of the party’s critics in China, Taiwan has greatly evolved in recent years. Mainland officials used once to deter overt expressions of sympathy for Taiwan by labelling those who showed any rapport as KMT agents or people out to split the motherland. But now that the island has managed a peaceable shift from thuggish dictatorship to democracy, Taiwan is much more often cited as a model these days. Several prominent Chinese dissidents-in-exile gathered in Taipei for the elections, singing the praises of the island’s politics. One of them, Wang Dan, who was a leader of the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989, set up a “school for democracy” in Taipei last year.

許多批判共產黨的中國評論家認為，近幾年台灣已有大幅的變革。中國官員過去曾威嚇不准對台灣表示認同，違者一律視為國民黨間諜或分裂母國份子。然而台灣已平和從過去殘暴的軍政府集權走向民主，近年來台灣更成為民主國家的典範。這次台灣大選，幾位流亡海外的中國異議份子也於台北聚首，一起共襄盛舉，讚揚台灣的民主政治，其中一位便是一九八九年引領天安門示威的王丹，他去年於台北創立了華人民主書院。

One of China’s considered efforts in recent years to bolster support for Mr Ma and build a pro-China constituency on the island has been to allow Chinese tourists (most of them big-spending) to visit Taiwan. That may now be having the unintended effect of encouraging the spread of democratic ideas from Taiwan to the mainland. These were the first presidential and legislative elections to be conducted under the gaze of big numbers of mainland tourists (almost 1.3m came to Taiwan in 2011). Last June the two sides began allowing Chinese tourists to visit on their own rather than as part of tour groups, a move that helped some curious mainlanders to fly in to watch the elections. When they eased travel restrictions, political tourism was probably not what the mainland authorities had in mind.

近年中國有意支持馬英九，並透過開放大陸遊客來台(大多數陸客都出手豪闊)的方式，建立台灣親中群眾，此舉卻得來無心插柳的結果，促成台灣的民主思潮傳向中國大陸。台灣今年的總統大選還是首度在大批陸客矚目下進行(二○一一年有近一百三十萬陸客來台)。去年七月，台海兩岸開放不需強制跟團的陸客自由行，這也讓好奇的大陸遊客可以來台觀看選舉盛況；然而，繼陸客自由行解禁後，政治參訪似乎不是中國政要原先設想的參訪理由。

from the print edition | Asia 印刷版 | 亞洲

Pro logo: Chinese consumers are falling out of love with fakes

文章來源：http://www.economist.com/node/21542819

Brands in China名牌中國

Pro logo品牌當道

Chinese consumers are falling out of love with fakes中國消費者拒絕假貨

WHEN Da Vinci, a retailer of expensive imported furniture, opened its new showroom in Shanghai recently, it spared no expense. The gallery, over 10,000 square metres spread over four stories, was filled with extravagant pieces from brands such as Armani Casa and Versace Home. The theme of the event was zhen de jia bu liao (roughly: “what is genuine cannot be counterfeited.”).

昂貴進口傢俱零售商達芬奇 (Da Vinci) 的新展場近期於中國上海開幕，在裝潢上砸下重金。該展場共四層樓，佔地面積約一萬平方公尺，展示奢華的名牌傢俱，包括 Armani Casa 與 Versace Home。會場主題訂為「真的假不了」，旨在表達真正高檔的品牌是無法仿冒的。

Yet Da Vinci is embroiled in a scandal. CCTV, an official media outlet, alleged that some of its imported kit may actually have been made locally, shipped overseas or to a bonded warehouse, then brought back into the country to earn an undeserved “imported” seal. The firm hired a public-relations agency to put a more positive spin on the story. Da Vinci claims this involved paying $150,000 through a broker to a journalist who, it alleges, threatened to run more damaging stories if not paid off.

然而，達芬奇最近卻捲入了一椿醜聞。據中國公營媒體「中國網絡電視」的報導指出，部分達芬奇的進口套件實際上是在中國當地製造，先運至海外或是保稅倉庫，再運回中國境內，以取得“名不符實”的進口標誌。該公司雇用公關經紀公司，試圖要為公司自圓其說。達芬奇表示，整起事件是有幕後黑手指示中間人，支付一位記者十五萬美元做此報導；並宣稱受該記者威脅，若不支付更高的代價，將會揭露更多有損公司形象的報導。

All parties involved deny wrongdoing. An initial official ruling seemed to clear Da Vinci, but in December the Shanghai authorities slapped fines on the firm for alleged misdeeds including improper labelling. Da Vinci now says it will take the authorities to court to clear its name and has filed a police complaint against the broker and journalist over what it says was an extortion plot.

涉入此醜聞的各派人士都否認犯下任何罪行。一項初步的官方判決看似還給達芬奇清白，但上海當局於十二月卻決定對達芬奇課徵罰金，判定的罪名包括了不當標籤。達芬奇目前表示，針對有關當局的判決，將會向法院提出上訴，以證明公司的清白，並已針對其對外宣稱的中間人與記者的勒索戲碼，向警方備案。

Whatever the truth behind this murky affair, it has revealed something about how the attitudes of Chinese consumers are changing. Counterfeiters are no longer popular. Not long ago, Chinese shoppers applauded the fakers for saving them money. Now they scorn them. If it’s a fake, the well-heeled sneer, you can’t flaunt it.

不論此次黑幕重重的事件背後真相為何，該事件揭露的是中國消費者態度的轉變。仿冒者不再受到歡迎。距今不久前，中國消費者仍讚揚仿冒商的存在，為人們省了不少錢，但現在卻開始對他們引以為恥。如果是冒牌貨，便會招來有錢人的恥笑，再也不是件值得炫耀的事。

Fakery is not dead, of course. In 2009, roughly 30% of mobile phones in the country were thought to be shanzhai—a popular term for clever fakes. The Business Software Alliance, a trade group, claims that nearly four-fifths of the software sold in China in 2010 was pirated. In December the US Trade Representative issued its annual report on the world’s most “notorious” counterfeit markets. Of the 30-odd markets identified, eight were in China. Some, such as Beijing’s Silk Street market, are well-known. The report also points the finger at Taobao, an online marketplace owned by Alibaba, China’s biggest e-commerce firm. That may be unfair. Taobao has clamped down so hard recently that it is enduring protests by angry vendors.

當然，假貨還是沒消聲匿跡。於二零零九年，中國仍有大約百分之三十的手機是「山寨機」，也就是幾可亂真的假貨。商業軟體聯盟 (Business Software Alliance) 為一貿易協會，該聯盟表示，中國於二零一零年內販售出的軟體當中，仍有將近五分之四是盜版軟體。美國貿易代表署 (US Trade Representative) 於十二月公佈其年度報告，內容是關於全球最惡名昭彰的偽造市場。報告內點名了約三十來個市場，中國便佔了其中八個。而像是北京的秀水街更是人盡皆知的仿冒市場。該報告亦將茅頭指向了淘寶網，該網路是中國最大的電子商務公司「阿里巴巴」旗下的線上購物網站。這項指控或許不盡公平，因為淘寶網近期已大肆取締仿冒品，甚至不惜承受許多憤怒商家的抗議。

Still, as China grows richer, life is growing harder for fakers. A recent study of China’s luxury market by Bain, a consultancy, concludes that “demand for counterfeit products is decreasing fast.” McKinsey, another consultancy, found that the proportion of consumers who said they were willing to buy fake jewellery dropped from 31% in 2008 to 12% last year. This is good news for all brands, not just the blingy ones. “Consumers are looking for the real thing, and they are increasingly willing and able to afford it,” say the authors.

即便如此，隨著中國日漸富裕，仿冒商的生活日形艱難。貝恩 (Bain) 顧問公司近期針對中國的奢侈品市場進行一項研究，其結果指出，中國對仿冒商品的需求正在快速下滑。另一間顧問公司麥肯錫 (McKinsey) 亦發現，中國消費者願意購買仿冒珠寶的比例亦大幅降低，從二零零八年的百分之三十一，下降至去年的百分之十二。這對所有品牌來說都是個好消息，不單單是對那些耀眼的名牌而言。作者表示：「消費者都想要真正的好產品，而他們也漸漸變得願意並有能力消費。」

Cash-strapped youngsters still love counterfeits, says Chen Junsong of the China Europe International Business School. But those over 30, if they have a bit of money, have become extremely brand-conscious. There is a “comparison culture”, he observes. People are ridiculed if spotted with a fake Gucci handbag.

中歐國際工商學院陳峻松博士表示，經濟拮据的年輕人仍偏愛仿冒品，但三十歲以上的成年人若手頭上有些錢，已愈來愈具有品牌意識。據他觀察，這是一種「相互比較」的社會型態。若是手拿古馳 (Gucci) 的仿冒提包，便會受到嘲笑。

Another reason why fakers are under pressure is that Chinese firms now have intellectual property of their own to protect. Brands such as Lenovo (a computer firm) and Haier (a maker of everything from fridges to air-conditioners) are highly valuable and therefore worth defending. The more Chinese innovators gripe about fakery, the more strictly the government enforces the law. It just announced that it aims to stamp out counterfeit software in government offices by the end of this year.

另一個使仿冒商備感壓力的原因是，中國企業也開始有屬於自己的智慧財產權要捍衛。像是電腦公司「聯想」以及大型電器製造商「海爾」都是極具價值的品牌，他們的品牌價值倍需保護。中國自創品牌企業對仿冒品愈感冒，中國政府執法便會愈嚴厲。中國政府日前才宣佈要在今年年底前徹底杜絕政府機關內的所有盜版軟體。

Even sceptical foreign manufacturers believe China is changing. Douglas Clark, an expert on China’s intellectual-property regime, points to a survey by the EU-China Chamber of Commerce suggesting that counterfeiting, long the first or second gravest concern of its members, is now third, fourth or not even ranked.

即便是持懷疑論調的外國製造商也相信中國正在改變。道格拉斯‧克拉克 (Douglas Clark) 是中國智慧財產體制的專家，他表示，根據中歐商會的一份調查結果顯示，中國的仿冒問題一度是商會成員最大或次大的隱憂，但現在已落居第三或四，甚至根本不再列入他們擔憂的問題名單內。

Tougher law enforcement has helped, he says, but so too has the fact that foreign firms have learned how to cope with fakes. Some have set up their own branded retail outlets to control distribution. GlaxoSmithKline, a British drugs giant, has introduced fake-proof “e-coding” of pills.

克拉克表示，執法日趨嚴格確實有幫助，但外國公司學對付仿冒品的作法亦功不可沒。有些公司透過設立公司品牌的專門零售門市，嚴格為銷售通路把關。而英國葛蘭素史克製藥大廠 (GlaxoSmithKline) 則是為其藥品採用一套防偽的「電子編碼」系統。

Chinese consumers are realising that brands are not just about showing off. They can also send useful signals about quality. A Coke probably won’t poison you because it would cause billions of dollars of harm to the Coca-Cola brand if it did.

中國消費者開始明白，品牌的意義不僅僅在於炫耀，同時也代表了品質的保證。可口可樂的可樂應該不可能會是“毒可樂”，因為任何失誤都會對它的品牌造成數十億美元的傷害。

In December China suffered another scandal involving tainted milk. Shoppers instantly shunned the local firm involved. Nestlé, a Swiss food giant, saw an opportunity. It announced this week that with its local partners it will invest some $400m to boost its dairy operations in China.

二零零八年十二月，中國捲入了「毒奶粉」的重大醜聞事件。消費者立即對所有中國奶粉公司拒之千里。瑞士食品大廠雀巢 (Nestlé) 看見其中的商機，於本週宣佈將與中國當地的合作夥伴合作，投入約四億美元的資金，擴大公司在中國的奶製品營運。