War games 戰爭遊戲

原文連結：http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21569725-another-battle-achieve-currency-depreciation-war-games

Buttonwood (財經專欄)
War games 戰爭遊戲
Another battle to achieve currency depreciation 貨幣貶值戰再起
Jan 19th 2013 |From the print edition

MANY British football grounds have a viewing problem. Although stadiums are all-seaters these days for health-and-safety reasons, some fans refuse to sit down. They stand during the game, forcing those behind them to follow suit. Eventually everyone in that part of the ground ends up on their feet. No one’s view has improved but everyone is a lot less comfortable.
許多球迷到英國橄欖球場都會發現視野上的問題。即使近年來因觀眾的健康及安全考量，運動場的設計上讓人人都有座位，但就是有些球迷不願坐下，而是站著觀賽，逼著後排觀眾也得站起來，搞到最後，那一區的所有球迷都站著看球。大家不但沒看得比較清楚，反而被弄得更不舒適。

Foreign-exchange markets face a similar issue at the moment. Just about every country would like to see its currency weaken, so that their exporters have a price advantage and can gain market share. But when one currency falls, others must rise. Those countries react by trying to force their currencies back down and the world ends up back where it started.
外匯市場現在也碰到了類似的問題。幾乎每個國家都希望本國貨幣貶值，因為出口商能藉此占價格優勢，搶攻市佔率。但一國貨幣貶值，也就意味著其他國家貨幣升值，這些國家便會試圖迫使本國貨幣貶值，最後各國之間的匯率又會變回最原始的狀態。

Guido Mantega, the Brazilian finance minister, described the process as “currency wars” back in September 2010, and this week Alexei Ulyukayev, the first deputy chairman of the Russian central bank, resurrected the phrase to warn of another round of competitive devaluations. Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the Eurogroup of finance ministers, this week called the single currency’s exchange rate “dangerously high”. The Norwegian central bank hinted that the krone’s strength would cause it to be cautious in pushing up interest rates, even though the country is in the middle of a housing boom.
在二○一○年九月，巴西財政部長吉多‧曼特加曾稱這種過程為「貨幣戰爭」；而本週，俄羅斯央行第一副主席阿列克謝‧烏盧卡耶夫再度引用這個詞彙來預告新一波競爭性貶值的來臨；歐元集團主席尚克勞德‧容克也在本週以「要命的高」來形容歐元的匯率。儘管挪威正值房地產業繁榮，但該國央行暗示，考量到挪威克朗的幣值，所以在提高利率時格外謹慎。

The starting-point for this particular skirmish was the election of Shinzo Abe as prime minister of Japan in December, and his promise to reorient economic policy. In particular Mr Abe wants the Bank of Japan to double its inflation target to 2% and to buy government bonds until that target is achieved. If his goal is realised, Japanese interest rates would finally become negative in real (ie, after inflation) terms. Because of deflation, real rates have been positive for much of the past decade, even though the economy has been sluggish. That has kept the yen strong, making life more difficult for exporters.
追根究柢，這波貨幣戰爭乃源自去年十二月當選日本首相的安倍晉三，還有他的重整經濟方針政見。尤其是安倍還希望央行將通膨目標提高至 2%，並要央行持續購買本國國債，直到達成通膨目標才能收手。安倍的目標一旦實現，日本的實質利率（即將通膨率計入後所得的利率）終將成負值。雖然日本經濟不景氣，但因通貨緊縮，過去十年來的實質利率幾乎皆為正值，這使日圓一直以來都十分強勢，對出口商不利。

Mr Abe’s rhetoric has had a big impact on the currency markets, pushing the yen down from 78 per dollar in October to 89. According to Alan Ruskin of Deutsche Bank, this was the fifth-fastest decline in the yen since the collapse of the Bretton Woods exchange-rate system in 1971.
安倍的言論對貨幣市場衝擊頗大，日圓對美元的匯率去年十月還是 78，現在則跌到了 89。德意志銀行的艾倫‧拉斯金表示，布列敦森林匯率體系 1971 年瓦解至今，這次日圓貶值的速度之快，可名列第五。

Even the Japanese seem to have been slightly taken aback by the yen’s fall. Japan is heavily dependent on foreign energy supplies, and on January 15th Akari Amari, the economy minister, warned that excessive yen depreciation would force up import prices. Perhaps it has only just dawned on Mr Amari that, if Japan wants higher inflation, some prices have to go up.
這次日圓的貶值，似乎就連日方也有點措手不及。日本高度仰賴國外能源供應，本月十五日，日本經濟部長甘利明提出警告，日圓過度貶值會連帶迫使進口價格上升。或許甘利這才明白，若日本想提高通膨率，還是得付出一些代價的。

The yen’s weakness has added to the pressures on other economies. One of the strongest currencies so far in 2013 has been the euro, which has been buoyed by a feeling that a break-up of the single currency has become less likely. Some side effects of this change in sentiment are helpful—the falls in Spanish and Italian government-bond yields, for example. By making life more difficult for the continent’s manufacturers, the rise in the currency is not one of them.
日圓走弱使他國也備感壓力。因為各界認為歐元瓦解的可能性已經降低，間接提振歐元，使其成為今年目前最強勢的貨幣之一。各界對歐元的態度轉變意外帶來一些益處，像是西班牙及義大利的國債利息因此下降；但相對地，歐元升值也對歐陸製造商不利，這可就不是什麼好事了。

The euro has even risen against the Swiss franc, a currency that was so strong in 2011 and 2012 that the Swiss accumulated more foreign-exchange reserves than any other country in the world. The Swiss National Bank acquired those reserves as part of its pledge to prevent the franc from rising above 1.20 to the euro by creating unlimited amounts of francs and buying foreign currencies with the proceeds.
在 2011 及 2012 年間，瑞士法郎十分強勢，瑞士的外匯存底甚至躍居全球之冠，當時的瑞士央行毫無限制地印製法郎、購買外幣，獲取外匯存底後，將之視為部分抵押品，預防法郎對歐元的匯率飆過 1.2。但現在，歐元對瑞士法郎也升值了。

The success of the tactic illustrated the different issues that face central banks that want to drive their currencies down, as opposed to those that want to prop them up. Central banks that support their currency rely on finite foreign-exchange reserves and a willingness to push up interest rates, a measure that causes huge damage to the domestic economy. In contrast, a determined central bank can always drive its currency lower provided it is willing to create enough currency and it is not worried about inflation.
這番策略成功的同時，說明了想貶值貨幣的國家所面臨的各種問題，但總有其他國家會希望前者升值。因此央行若想維持幣值，除了依賴有限的外匯存底之外，還得願意冒著重挫國家經濟的風險而提升利率；相反的，如果央行願意創造足夠的貨幣而拋開通膨的疑慮，那麼貨幣貶值也不是什麼難事。

What is so unusual about the current situation is that quantitative easing (QE) has been so widespread in rich countries. QE may not have been specifically designed to drive currencies down, but exchange-rate weakness has been seen by policymakers as a useful side effect.
目前全球局勢中不尋常的是，量化寬鬆竟已在富國間如此普遍。量化寬鬆的立意或許不在帶動貨幣貶值，但決策者都將匯率走貶視為附加效益。

Countries in the developing world, like Russia, may be cynical about the whole process. But economic experience suggests that as such countries catch up with developed ones, emerging-market currencies should rise and those of richer places fall. The emerging world has resisted this natural development, so it is having to happen in unnatural ways.
俄國等開發中國家可能會對這整起事件懷疑猜忌，但過去經驗顯示，正當開發中國家的經濟表現逐漸趕上已開發國家時，新興經濟體的貨幣就會升值，而富國的貨幣就會貶值。既然新興經濟體一直想阻止這種正常發展，那麼整體局勢就必將反常了。