Taiwan’s elections 台灣大選

It’s all right, Ma 馬先生，我們都支持你!

Taiwanese democracy catches on—in mainland China

台式民主於中國大陸掀起風潮

Jan 21st 2012 | TAIPEI | from the print edition 印刷版 | 台北 | 二○一二年，一月二十一日

(文章來源): http://www.economist.com/node/21543197 (經濟學人)

THE presidential and parliamentary elections that Taiwan held on January 14th were unusual. No party was engulfed in scandal, as was the ruling party at the time in 2008. No candidate was shot at, as the incumbent was four years before that. China issued no dire warnings, as it did in 2000. Nor did it reinforce such warnings by lobbing missiles into the seas around Taiwan, as it did in 1996. Indeed, perhaps most striking this time round was the reaction the polls aroused in China. There, some saw President Ma Ying-jeou’s re-election in a peacefully contested race as evidence that democracy might one day have a chance in China too.

一月十四號在台灣舉行的總統及立院選舉，可說相當異於往常，沒有任何黨派像二○○八年的執政黨一樣，捲入弊案的愁雲慘霧中，候選人馬英九也沒有像二○○四年陳前總統一樣遭到槍擊，中國方面也沒有像二○○○年一樣對台灣出言恫嚇，也沒有像一九九六年台海危機時，於台灣海峽附近試射飛彈。不過，這次大選最令人驚訝之處，應該就屬中國國內民調所引發的反應。部份中國人認為，馬英九此次經由和平競選連任成功，可作為有朝一日民主制度也能在中國萌芽的證據。

Taiwan’s elections might have created a new source of instability in Asia that neither America nor China was keen to face. America is in a presidential election year and China, too, will soon undergo a sweeping change of its leaders. Officials from both countries had hinted strongly at the outcome in Taiwan that they preferred: another four years of Mr Ma. He can be relied upon not to goad an untested new leadership in Beijing into an alarming display of military posturing of the kind it put on the mid-1990s, on the occasion of the island’s first democratic election for the presidency. In the event, Mr Ma won with nearly 52% of the vote, and his Kuomintang (KMT) held the legislature.

以往台灣只要舉行總統大選，都可能造成亞洲地區的不穩定，這也是中國與美國所不樂見的。美國今年亦正值總統大選年，中國很快也將歷經領導階層的重新洗牌，兩國官員都強烈暗示，他們希望台灣此次大選，馬英九能再度連任，這乃是因為他們認為馬英九值得信賴，認為他不致刺激北京新一代領導者，造成中國像一九九○年代中期一樣，對台進行武力威嚇，當時正好是台灣首次民選總統。今年大選，馬英九以將近百分之五十二得票率勝出，他所領導的國民黨也在立法院占有過半席次。

It was a relief to both China and America. At the same time the composure of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was also reassuring. Its candidate, Tsai Ing-wen, came a solid second, with nearly 46% of the vote. The DPP accepted defeat gracefully, unlike the KMT in 2004, when it took to the streets and courts to contest victory by the DPP incumbent, Chen Shui-bian. Ms Tsai, a bureaucrat turned politician, had hoped to become the island’s first woman president. She resigned the chairmanship of the DPP after her defeat. Yet she deserves credit for turning round the fortunes of a party that was thrown into disarray by Mr Ma’s victory in 2008, and by the shock of Mr Chen’s later conviction and prison sentence for gross corruption.

馬英九這次連任成功也讓中國及美國鬆了一口氣，而民進黨敗選後的沉著冷靜，也同時讓兩國感到安心。民進黨候選人蔡英文以百分之四十六的得票率穩居第二，並坦然面對敗選的事實，不像二○○四年陳水扁當選後，國民黨走向街頭、前進發願，抗議選舉不公。蔡英文從政府官員轉戰政治人物，原本希望能成為台灣第一位女總統；敗選後，她便辭去黨主席的職位，但可說雖敗猶榮，她不僅讓二○○八年馬當選後混亂不堪的民進黨重獲新生，也平息了陳水扁因重大貪汙罪入獄服刑對黨內所帶來的衝擊。

Mr Ma’s re-election suggests that many voters shared the fears of Chinese and American officials that Ms Tsai might revive Mr Chen’s provocative approach in dealing with the mainland. This involved vigorously asserting Taiwan’s separateness and resisting any initiatives that remotely smacked of “one China” embracing both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Yet strong support for Ms Tsai (who happens to be far less of a China-provoker than Mr Chen was) also suggested that some Taiwanese are uneasy about the rapid pace of the rapprochement with the mainland under Mr Ma. His share of the vote fell, from 58% four years ago, and his party has a reduced majority in the legislature. It suggests Mr Ma will now have to move more cautiously in his dealings with China, particularly in any area that touches on questions of sovereignty—such as a peace accord, much talked about, in which Taiwan and China would pledge not to resolve their differences by force.

馬英九的連任也顯示出，選民與中、美官員都害怕蔡英文會與陳水扁一樣，在兩岸關係的處理上採取激烈的手段，這包括強烈主張台灣自主性，或否認任何涵蓋台灣為中國一省的「一中」表述。但幸好蔡英文不像陳水扁一樣對中國採強硬手段，這次大選她頗受支持，乃因為部分國人對於馬英九快速拉攏兩岸關係感到不悅，這也讓馬英九得票率比去年低了百分之六，國民黨於立院的席次也因此降低，這也意味著，未來馬英九在處理兩岸關係上必須更加謹慎，特別是涉及主權的問題，最常談到的便是和平協議，也就是台灣與中國雙方皆承諾，不以武力解決雙邊差異。

Gone is the speculation common in the early days of Mr Ma’s presidency that this year might produce a breakthrough in cross-strait relations. After a decade at the helm, China’s president, Hu Jintao, will step down as Communist Party chief later this year (in a process involving not a hint of democracy). Some had hoped he and Mr Ma would wish to leave their mark on history with the first ever cross-strait summit. But Mr Hu, it is now clear, is far more caught up with problems at home, including ensuring economic growth and social stability as leaders jockey for positions in the new line-up. Certainly, Mr Ma lacks domestic support for such a meeting, and he has made it clear that China must address him as president if ever there were to be a summit. As ever, China’s media, in their reports on the elections, found it hard to describe the elections as presidential, except sometimes in quotation marks.

在馬英九剛上任不久，許多人認為他會在兩岸關係上做出突破，但這般揣測似乎已煙消雲散。中國國家主席胡錦濤已掌權十年之久，將在今年下半年辭去共產黨領導者的職務，然而在他退位的過程中，並無一絲民主的跡象。一些人認為，馬、胡應舉辦一場史無前例的台海兩岸高峰會，可能因此留名青史；但目前，胡錦濤顯然仍陷於國內種種的問題中，在後起領導者爭相謀取權位之時，他除了要確保經濟發展，還必須尋求社會穩定。在馬英九方面，無疑他若要舉辦這場高峰會，國人並不支持，他也表明，若真有這麼一場高峰會，會中中國必須稱呼他為總統；然而，就以往經驗看來，中國媒體在報導台灣大選時，發覺很難將這樣的選舉稱為總統大選，最多也只有少數情況下用引號來表示。

Yet if a survey conducted by a mainland internet portal, Sina.com, is any guide, Mr Ma enjoys strong support on the mainland too. Though the Communist Party has an abhorrence of multiparty democracy, mainland websites gave extensive coverage to Taiwan’s elections, even offering live video feeds of the vote-counting. (The tightly controlled print media were more circumspect in their reporting.) Of more than 26,000 responses to a Sina.com poll asking readers who they would prefer to win, nearly 55% chose Mr Ma, whereas more than a quarter supported a China-friendly rival, James Soong (who took less than 3% of the vote in Taiwan). Nearly 20% chose the China-sceptic Ms Tsai. All this in a country which may not even vote in television talent shows.

不過，若中國入口網站新浪網所做的調查能做為指標的話，其實也有許多中國人大力支持馬英九。儘管中國共產黨非常厭惡多黨輪替的民主體制，但網路上仍大篇幅報導台灣選舉的盛況，甚至還提供開票的實況轉播(報章雜誌因受到嚴格管制，報導就顯得較為嚴謹)。新浪網詢問對台灣候選人支持度的調查中，有超過二萬六千人次的回應，其中有將近五十五%支持馬英九；有二十五%支持親中的宋楚瑜(大選得票率不到三)；另外有將近二十%支持對中國採質疑態度的蔡英文。這番在網路上投票表態的景象，竟會發生在一個連選秀節目上都嚴禁有票選行為的國家。

Li Fan of the World and China Institute, a small Beijing organisation, says that these mainland expressions of support for Ms Tsai were a mark of dissatisfaction with the Communist Party and indicated a desire for opposition politics at home. Mr Li led a rare delegation of mainland academics to observe the Taiwan elections. His five companions were all first-time visitors to the island and were amazed by its politics. “They never thought Taiwan was so free and democratic”, Mr Li enthuses. “It had a very powerful effect on them.” He says the polls give the lie to the Communist Party’s notion that democracy begets chaos.

世界與中國研究所(The World and China Institute)為北京一個小型的民間團體，所長李凡表示，許多大陸人於網路上表態支持蔡英文，可見他們相當不滿共產黨的作風，渴望國內能出現反對黨。李凡本次也難得帶領一群學者代表團，來台觀察選舉的盛況，而團內的五個隨從都是第一次來到台灣，對台灣的政治情況嘖嘖稱奇，李凡稱道:「他們從來不知道，台灣是這麼的民主，這麼的自由，大選的盛況讓他們感到相當震撼。」他更表示，新浪網的調查結果，證明了共產黨認為民主會帶來混亂一言並非事實。

What’s wrong with peaceful evolution? 和平革命哪裡出了差錯?

In the minds of the party’s critics in China, Taiwan has greatly evolved in recent years. Mainland officials used once to deter overt expressions of sympathy for Taiwan by labelling those who showed any rapport as KMT agents or people out to split the motherland. But now that the island has managed a peaceable shift from thuggish dictatorship to democracy, Taiwan is much more often cited as a model these days. Several prominent Chinese dissidents-in-exile gathered in Taipei for the elections, singing the praises of the island’s politics. One of them, Wang Dan, who was a leader of the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989, set up a “school for democracy” in Taipei last year.

許多批判共產黨的中國評論家認為，近幾年台灣已有大幅的變革。中國官員過去曾威嚇不准對台灣表示認同，違者一律視為國民黨間諜或分裂母國份子。然而台灣已平和從過去殘暴的軍政府集權走向民主，近年來台灣更成為民主國家的典範。這次台灣大選，幾位流亡海外的中國異議份子也於台北聚首，一起共襄盛舉，讚揚台灣的民主政治，其中一位便是一九八九年引領天安門示威的王丹，他去年於台北創立了華人民主書院。

One of China’s considered efforts in recent years to bolster support for Mr Ma and build a pro-China constituency on the island has been to allow Chinese tourists (most of them big-spending) to visit Taiwan. That may now be having the unintended effect of encouraging the spread of democratic ideas from Taiwan to the mainland. These were the first presidential and legislative elections to be conducted under the gaze of big numbers of mainland tourists (almost 1.3m came to Taiwan in 2011). Last June the two sides began allowing Chinese tourists to visit on their own rather than as part of tour groups, a move that helped some curious mainlanders to fly in to watch the elections. When they eased travel restrictions, political tourism was probably not what the mainland authorities had in mind.

近年中國有意支持馬英九，並透過開放大陸遊客來台(大多數陸客都出手豪闊)的方式，建立台灣親中群眾，此舉卻得來無心插柳的結果，促成台灣的民主思潮傳向中國大陸。台灣今年的總統大選還是首度在大批陸客矚目下進行(二○一一年有近一百三十萬陸客來台)。去年七月，台海兩岸開放不需強制跟團的陸客自由行，這也讓好奇的大陸遊客可以來台觀看選舉盛況；然而，繼陸客自由行解禁後，政治參訪似乎不是中國政要原先設想的參訪理由。

from the print edition | Asia 印刷版 | 亞洲